Cold Kills

By Peter Galvin, MD

Ever notice how those who make predictions about our planet never seem to get it right? In the 1970s, we were told that a new ice age was coming, and we were going to freeze to death. When that turned out to be wrong, then we were told that the planet was going to get so hot we were not going to survive. When that turned out to be wrong, we were told that “climate change” was an existential threat to our existence. How do we know that they are right this time? Oh, and in the 1970s we were also told that global overpopulation and decreased food production would cause millions to starve to death. Today, we produce more food than we ever did, and the global population has started to shrink. Many developed countries now find the birth rate is so low that their population growth rate is now below zero, meaning that there are not enough babies being born to replace the current population.

We are told that because there are more severe storms many people will die. Yet, death due to storms is just a tiny fraction of what it was 100 years ago. We are also told that more people will die from hot weather. Yet, the truth is that vastly more people die from cold weather than from hot weather. Last month, a review from several Massachusetts medical centers was published. The review says that although mean temperatures are increasing (2024 was the warmest year ever recorded in the U.S.), they reviewed multiple studies that found that climate change is linked to more frequent episodes of colder weather and severe winter storms. These studies revealed that climate change is associated with increased cold-weather mortality.

The review assessed trends in cold-weather mortality from 1999 and 2022. They used the CDC’s WONDER (Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) platform to analyze death certificates from 1999 to 2022 in which cold was recorded as either the underlying or contributing cause of death. They found that cold-related deaths in the U.S. more than doubled between 1999 and 2022, and especially spiked up over the last 6 years. They attributed this to more frequent extreme cold weather events and the rising burden of risk factors for cold-related mortality such as homelessness, social isolation, and substance use. Cold-related mortality was the highest among older adults as they are more susceptible to cold weather due to underlying disease and changes in their bodies’ ability to react to cold.

The authors suggest that due to the alarming increase in cold-weather deaths public health interventions are needed to improve access to warming centers and indoor heating for vulnerable populations. They also suggested that using death certificates to assess cold-weather mortality may cause an underestimation of the actual mortality rate.

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